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McEwen Mining Inc. (MUX)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 capped a year of higher gold prices and improved profitability metrics, but quarterly production was planned lower at Gold Bar (65% reduction) and Fox continued to work through stope availability issues; full-year revenue rose to $174.5M and Adjusted EBITDA to $29.2M, while consolidated net loss reflected $47M Los Azules expenses .
  • Liquidity was strengthened post-quarter via $110M 5.25% convertible notes with a capped call raising effective conversion to $17.30; cash climbed to $62.2M as of Mar 13, 2025, and $20M of 9.75% debt was repaid .
  • 2025 production/cost guidance was maintained: consolidated 120–140k GEOs; Gold Bar 40–45k GEOs (cash cost $1,500–$1,700; AISC $1,700–$1,900), Fox 30–35k (cash $1,600–$1,800; AISC $1,700–$1,900), and San José (49%) 50–60k (cash $1,600–$1,800; AISC $1,900–$2,100) .
  • Catalysts: Los Azules feasibility by June 2025 and potential RIGI approval “in a couple of months” could unlock capitalization of copper spend (reducing reported losses) and an IPO window; management is also evaluating higher throughput to capture >$3,000/oz gold .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Full-year revenue grew to $174.5M (vs. $166.2M in 2023) on stronger realized prices ($2,390/oz) and higher gross profit ($30.9M) .
    • Adjusted EBITDA rose to $29.2M ($0.57/share) from $7.7M, reflecting higher realized prices and lower production costs; Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $5.2M .
    • Safety and ESG execution: zero LTIs at Fox and Gold Bar in 2024; >90% water recycling at wholly owned sites in 2023–2024 .
    • Quote: “Our mines are making money at this point… it is the large investment we’ve been making in Los Azules… creating this net loss.” – Rob McEwen .
    • Los Azules EIA approval in Dec-2024, feasibility targeted for H1’25; RIGI application submitted (45-day review clock stops with info requests) .
  • What Went Wrong

    • Fox underperformed guidance: 2024 production 30,151 GEOs (25% below guidance) with higher-than-guided cash cost and AISC (by 24% and 28%) due to a stope failure and development constraints .
    • Planned Q4 Gold Bar production decline (65%) from mine sequencing (transition from Gold Bar South to Pick pre-stripping), driving higher unit costs in the quarter .
    • San José unit costs above guidance in 2024 (cash cost $1,742/GEO; AISC $2,139) due to lower grades and macro factors; 100% basis Q4 AISC $2,038/GEO .
    • Consolidated net loss of $43.7M for 2024 was driven by $47M of equity-accounted Los Azules expenses and $16.5M exploration at wholly owned mines .

Financial Results

Consolidated profitability/cash flow – quarterly

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
(Loss) income before income and mining taxes ($M)$(15.37) $(1.27) $(7.16)
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$7.23 $10.49 $5.20
Adjusted EBITDA per share ($)$0.15 $0.20 $0.10
Weighted avg shares (000s)49,718 51,953 52,926

Mine KPIs – quarterly (100% owned sites reported on a mine basis; San José shown 100% basis as disclosed)

  • Gold Bar Mine
KPIQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Ounces sold (GEO, 000s)12.5 13.3 6.6
Cash cost per GEO ($)$1,532 $1,281 $2,136
AISC per GEO ($)$1,634 $1,822 $2,773
  • Fox Complex
KPIQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Ounces sold (GEO, 000s)8.1 8.0 6.6
Cash cost per GEO ($)$1,588 $1,572 $1,874
AISC per GEO ($)$1,874 $1,953 $2,240
  • San José Mine (100% basis)
KPIQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Ounces sold (GEO, 000s)29.7 26.7 37.3
Cash cost per GEO ($)$1,624 $2,173 $1,635
AISC per GEO ($)$2,032 $2,675 $2,038

Full-year context (consolidated)

MetricFY 2023FY 2024
Revenue ($M)$166.2 $174.5
Gross Profit ($M)$17.8 $30.9
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$7.7 $29.2
Net Income (Loss) ($M)$55.3 $(43.7)
Diluted EPS ($)$1.16 $(0.86)
Avg realized price ($/oz, 100% owned)$1,927 $2,390

Notes:

  • The company did not separately disclose consolidated Q4 revenue/EPS in the press release/8-K; S&P Global quarterly fundamentals were not retrievable at this time (access limit), so they are not shown .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (Jan 29, 2025)Current Guidance (Mar 18, 2025)Change
Consolidated GEOsFY 2025120,000–140,000 120,000–140,000 Maintained
Gold Bar GEOsFY 202540,000–45,000; Cash $1,500–$1,700; AISC $1,700–$1,900 40,000–45,000; Cash $1,500–$1,700; AISC $1,700–$1,900 Maintained
Fox GEOsFY 202530,000–35,000; Cash $1,600–$1,800; AISC $1,700–$1,900 30,000–35,000; Cash $1,600–$1,800; AISC $1,700–$1,900 Maintained
San José (49%) GEOsFY 202550,000–60,000; Cash $1,600–$1,800; AISC $1,900–$2,100 50,000–60,000; Cash $1,600–$1,800; AISC $1,900–$2,100 Maintained
Consolidated AISCFY 2025$1,800–$2,000 $1,800–$2,000 Maintained

Management also reiterated planned H1’25 higher costs at Gold Bar due to stripping, improving in H2’25, and Fox’s ramp to Stock with commercial production now expected in early 2026 .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ2 2024 (prior)Q3 2024 (prior)Q4 2024 (current)Trend
Fox execution and transitionStope failure impacted H1; Fox expected 15–20% below guidance; ramp to Stock initiated .Fox Q3 AISC elevated; stope availability improving; planning 100k oz by 2028 .2024 Fox 30,151 GEOs (25% below guidance); 2025 30–35k GEOs; focus on Stock ramp; commercial production early 2026 .Gradual improvement with Stock ramp; near-term volumes constrained.
Gold Bar sequencing/stripGold Bar Q2/Q3 strong; on track to exceed guide; unit costs down y/y .Planned low Q4 production; aggressive stripping at Pick; costs up in Q4 .Q4 planned 65% production decrease; H1’25 higher unit costs, improvement as H2 progresses .H2-weighted 2025; costs roll down post-strip.
San José cost inflationPeso strength lifted USD costs; Q2 cash $1,624, AISC $2,032 .Q3 costs above plan on lower grades; management bullish into Q4 .2024 AISC $2,139; Q4 AISC $2,038; capacity expanded to 2,000 tpd; 2025 50–60k GEO (49% basis) .Costs still elevated; throughput increase aids outlook.
Los Azules permitting/FSFeasibility targeted H1’25; funding raised at $30/sh .EIA expected; FS H1’25; IPO after FS+permit .EIA granted Dec-2024; FS by June 2025; RIGI approval expected “in a couple of months” with clock-stop caveat .Advancing to key de-risking milestones.
Capital & liquidity$40.7M cash; $40M debt at 6/30/24 .Working capital strengthened by operations; McEwen Copper financing .Issued $110M converts; cash $62.2M (Mar 13, 2025); $20M debt repaid .Liquidity improved for growth capex.
Macro/price responseManagement considering throughput increases to capture >$3,000/oz gold .Potential upside lever in high price regime.

Management Commentary

  • “Adjusted EBITDA was 3.8x higher this year at $29.2 million... We did post a net loss of $43.7 million, and that was due to... Los Azules of $47 million… our mines are making money at this point.” – Rob McEwen .
  • “We plan to complete the feasibility study by June this year… we have the majority of our engineering complete… and we have received our environmental impact statement” – Michael Meding (McEwen Copper) .
  • “At these [gold] prices… if we could increase even by 10% the production in Timmins and 10% in Nevada, that would basically create about $10 million of cash.” – William (Bill) Shaver (COO) .
  • “At both of our Fox and Gold Bar operations, we're projecting about $1,700 to $1,900 per GEO sold [AISC]” (2025) – Management .
  • RIGI timing: “2, 3, 4 months from now… new regulation… the clock stops on the 45 days when information is requested.” – Management .

Q&A Highlights

  • Timberline/Eureka permitting path: phased approach; patented claims faster (~2 years), BLM 3–5 years; earliest production projected ~2027 .
  • Royalties strategy: management open to both expanding and monetizing the portfolio “when the time is right” .
  • Gold at >$3,000/oz: operations actively evaluating increasing production throughput to capture prices; expected AISC still within $1,700–$1,900/GEO .
  • RIGI queue and timeline: Los Azules was the second metals project to file; approval expected in coming months with procedural “clock stop” for regulator info requests .
  • San José dividend: JV expected to declare “just under $5M” (100%); MUX share just over $2M, with improved liquidity and extended mine life .
  • Mexico (El Gallo): cautious stance; permitting awaited; assets ready to mobilize if conditions improve .

Estimates Context

  • We attempted to retrieve Q4 2024 Wall Street consensus EPS/revenue from S&P Global but were unable to access at this time due to data limits; therefore, Q4 results vs. consensus are not shown. We will update when S&P Global estimates are retrievable.
  • Management-reported results and guidance provided herein are from the company’s 8-K and press releases .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near-term operating setup: H1’25 costs at Gold Bar elevated due to stripping, with H2 improvement; Fox volumes constrained until Stock ramp advances (commercial production now early 2026) .
  • Structural de-risking: Los Azules EIA secured; feasibility by June 2025 and potential RIGI approval could allow capitalization of copper costs, improving reported earnings optics .
  • Price leverage: Management evaluating throughput increases to monetize high gold prices; each ~10% uplift at Fox/Gold Bar could add ~$10M cash, per COO .
  • Balance sheet flexibility: $110M converts with capped call (effective conversion $17.30) and $20M secured debt reduction expand funding for Fox/Gold Bar growth capex .
  • Cost discipline watchpoints: Q4 unit cost spike at Gold Bar was planned (low production); Fox AISC remains elevated near-term—track quarterly progress on stopes and Stock ramp .
  • 2025 guidance maintained across all assets—execution on H2’25 cost roll-down and Fox development is key to multiple and FCF trajectory .
  • Potential stock catalysts: (1) RIGI approval, (2) Los Azules feasibility release, (3) Fox Stock ramp milestones, (4) San José dividend trajectory and cost normalization .

Additional Context – Selected Operating Details

  • 2024 production: Consolidated 135,884 GEOs; Gold Bar 44,581; Fox 30,151; San José (100% basis) 122,653 .
  • 2025 outlook (site-level): Gold Bar 40–45k GEOs; Fox 30–35k; San José (49%) 50–60k, with Gold Bar cost curve improving after H1 strip and Fox focus on Stock ramp .
  • Safety/ESG highlights: Zero LTIs; >90% water recycling at wholly owned sites in 2023–2024 .

All figures and statements are sourced from company filings and materials as cited.